What will be the next country to send a manned flight to the moon
Russia / UkraineTechOne-OffSpaceChina1moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastUSA 53.2%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
36
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleMay 9, 25, 12:18 PM UTCNov 21, 26, 1:15 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
SpaceX Starship manned flight to successfully land on the moon by the end of 2026?
FutuurWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiWill NASA have a manned landing on the moon by 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill China complete a successful manned mission to the lunar surface by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Rocket Lab successfully send an atmospheric probe to Venus by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be any successful manned mission to Mars launched by any country/private company by 2040 ?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution Criteria
- This market will resolve to the country that successfully conducts the next manned lunar landing.
- The resolution will be based on official announcements from the respective space agencies or credible news sources confirming the successful landing of astronauts on the Moon's surface.
- Several nations have announced plans for crewed lunar missions in the coming years:
- United States: NASA's Artemis program aims to return astronauts to the Moon.
- Artemis III, the mission intended to land astronauts on the lunar surface, is currently scheduled for September 2026.
