Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 98.9%
Forecasters
45
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleJan 27, 24, 4:19 AM UTCJan 2, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
SpaceX Starship manned flight to successfully land on the moon by the end of 2026?
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Manifold MarketsWill there be a successful manned mission to Mars by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the first successful soft landing of a probe on Mercury happen?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves YES:
- There is a successful manned NASA landing on the moon by January 1st 2027.
- There is no attempted landing, or an attempted landing leads to the death of an astronaut.
Open markets
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-1.8pt9%
- Google2%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $121.9K
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Total Vol
- $53.1K
- 24h Vol
- $53.1K
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt59.4%
- SpaceX-4.0pt38.5%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-16.0pt19%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 2027-0.5pt67%
- June 30, 2027-0.5pt53%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will NASA have a manned landing on the moon by 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 99% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will NASA have a manned landing on the moon by 2027? resolve?
- Will NASA have a manned landing on the moon by 2027? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2027.
- How is Will NASA have a manned landing on the moon by 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES: