Current community forecast
No 97.5%
Forecasters
25
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleSep 18, 23, 7:29 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 6:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
What will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit Week of October 26 2026?
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Manifold MarketsRules
Currently Rocket Lab is planning on sending an atomospheric probe to Venus with a target launch date of January 2025:
- https://venuscloudlife.com/small-mission/
- https://www.rocketlabusa.com/missions/upcoming-missions/first-private-mission-to-venus/
- This market resolve YES if Rocket Lab succesfully delivers any kind of atmospheric measurement probe into the Venusian atmosphere by the end of 2026.
- The probe does not need to successfully collect data or function; it just needs to actually enter the atmosphere.
- I have chosen a close time of 2026 to accomodate both the travel time to Venus and smaller delays.