Current community forecast
No 97.5%
Forecasters
25
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Sep 18, 23, 7:29 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 6:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will Rocket Lab Corporation launch Neutron
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KalshiRules
Currently Rocket Lab is planning on sending an atomospheric probe to Venus with a target launch date of January 2025:
- https://venuscloudlife.com/small-mission/
- https://www.rocketlabusa.com/missions/upcoming-missions/first-private-mission-to-venus/
- This market resolve YES if Rocket Lab succesfully delivers any kind of atmospheric measurement probe into the Venusian atmosphere by the end of 2026.
- The probe does not need to successfully collect data or function; it just needs to actually enter the atmosphere.
- I have chosen a close time of 2026 to accomodate both the travel time to Venus and smaller delays.
Open markets
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+18 more outcomes
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- 24h Vol
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LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Rocket Lab successfully send an atmospheric probe to Venus by the end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 98% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Rocket Lab successfully send an atmospheric probe to Venus by the end of 2026? resolve?
- Will Rocket Lab successfully send an atmospheric probe to Venus by the end of 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will Rocket Lab successfully send an atmospheric probe to Venus by the end of 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Currently Rocket Lab is planning on sending an atomospheric probe to Venus with a target launch date of January 2025: