Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 3:46 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast2027 or later 97.6%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
34
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleMar 20, 24, 2:22 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will Rocket Lab Neutron launch for the first time?
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PolymarketRules
As of March 19 2024, Rocket Lab is publicly targeting a launch in 2024.
- As of May 2024, Rocket Lab is now targeting 2025.
- Answers will resolve as YES if Neutron lifts off and clears the pad before the respective dates given.
- A successful remainder of the flight is not necessary.
- The flight does not need to be on an orbital trajectory.