Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast2027 or later 96.3%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
34
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+1.8 pts
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleMar 20, 24, 2:22 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will Rocket Lab Neutron launch for the first time?
Manifold MarketsRocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31?
PolymarketWhen will Rocket Lab Corporation launch Neutron
KalshiWhat payloads will the first paid Rocket Lab Neutron launch carry?
Manifold MarketsWill Rocket Lab's Neutron rocket fly 50 times before 2030?
Manifold MarketsHow many launches will Rocket Lab have before 2027?
KalshiRules
As of March 19 2024, Rocket Lab is publicly targeting a launch in 2024.
- As of May 2024, Rocket Lab is now targeting 2025.
- Answers will resolve as YES if Neutron lifts off and clears the pad before the respective dates given.
- A successful remainder of the flight is not necessary.
- The flight does not need to be on an orbital trajectory.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will Rocket Lab’s Neutron make its first flight??
- Manifold Markets prices 2027 or later at 96% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does When will Rocket Lab’s Neutron make its first flight? resolve?
- When will Rocket Lab’s Neutron make its first flight? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is When will Rocket Lab’s Neutron make its first flight? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: As of March 19 2024, Rocket Lab is publicly targeting a launch in 2024.
