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Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 12:10 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
Commercial Satellite 32%Leader of 11 outcomes
Commercial Satellite 32%Forecasters
7
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 31 minutes ago
Sep 7, 25, 2:57 AM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will Rocket Lab Neutron launch for the first time?
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PolymarketRules
Rocket Lab has been developing their medium lift Neutron rocket for some time, which has planned 8500 kg, 13000 kg, and 15000 kg lift capacities (varying based on reusability) and is a step up in size from their existing Electron platform.
- Their launch complex made for this rocket, LC-3, is now complete.
- They've announced a few early customers so far, including a commercial the named outcome, and a the named outcome delivery test by the USAF.
- Also "paid" in the title means not a test flight, but rather something that one or several customers have financed, i.e. part of Rocket Lab's revenue generating operations.