Current community forecast
No 96.8%
Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleJan 22, 26, 4:51 AM UTCDec 24, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will Rocket Lab Corporation launch Neutron
KalshiWhich is first in 2026: Starship refueling, New Glenn RTF, or Neutron?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Rocket Lab’s Neutron make its first flight?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Rocket Lab Neutron launch for the first time?
Manifold MarketsRocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31?
PolymarketWill Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- Neutron will resolve YES if Rocket Lab's Neutron rocket completes its first orbital flight before December 25, 2026.
- The first flight is expected to be in mid-2026, with the first flight vehicle expected to be shipped to Wallops during the first quarter of 2026.
- Resolution will be based on official confirmation from Rocket Lab or credible space industry sources (e.g., Spaceflight Now, NASASpaceflight.com) that the rocket has successfully reached orbit.
- A successful first flight requires reaching orbit; reaching suborbital altitudes or clearing the pad does not count.
- The market resolves NO if the first orbital flight does not occur by December 25, 2026.
Open markets
SportsPOLYMARKETUS Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen
- Michelsen Total Sets: O/U 3.5+34.5pt100%
- Michelsen Set 3 Winner+45.5pt100%
- Michelsen Total Sets: O/U 4.5+70.5pt100%
+25 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $6.9M
- 24h Vol
- $6.9M
POLYMARKETUEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
- Barcelona17.9%
- Arsenal15.1%
- Bayern Munich13.2%
+33 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $28.5M
KALSHIHouston vs Philadelphia
- Houston+48.0pt91.1%
- Philadelphia-48.0pt8.9%
- Total Vol
- $2.8M
- 24h Vol
- $2.7M
KALSHIUS Open Men's Singles Winner
- Carlos Alcaraz+1.0pt58%
- Alexander Zverev+4.0pt26%
- Ben Shelton+2.0pt9%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $28.6M
KALSHIBrace vs Sorribes Tormo
- Cadence Brace52%
- Sara Sorribes Tormo48%
- Total Vol
- $2.2M
- 24h Vol
- $2M
KALSHIShelton vs Alcaraz
- Carlos Alcaraz-1.0pt77.2%
- Ben Shelton+1.0pt22.8%
- Total Vol
- $2.1M
- 24h Vol
- $1.9M
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Neutron Launch before Christmas??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 97% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Neutron Launch before Christmas? resolve?
- Will Neutron Launch before Christmas? is scheduled to resolve on December 24, 2026.
- How is Will Neutron Launch before Christmas? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria