Current community forecast
No 98.6%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Jan 22, 26, 4:51 AM UTCDec 24, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- Neutron will resolve YES if Rocket Lab's Neutron rocket completes its first orbital flight before December 25, 2026.
- The first flight is expected to be in mid-2026, with the first flight vehicle expected to be shipped to Wallops during the first quarter of 2026.
- Resolution will be based on official confirmation from Rocket Lab or credible space industry sources (e.g., Spaceflight Now, NASASpaceflight.com) that the rocket has successfully reached orbit.
- A successful first flight requires reaching orbit; reaching suborbital altitudes or clearing the pad does not count.
- The market resolves NO if the first orbital flight does not occur by December 25, 2026.
