PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 91.1%
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$838.8
Low liquidityBid / Ask
8.0% / 9.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
1
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Apr 30, 26, 7:18 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will Rocket Lab’s Neutron make its first flight?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Rocket Lab Neutron launch for the first time?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Rocket Lab Corporation launch Neutron
KalshiWill the first Neutron rocket launch be a success ?
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KalshiHow many launches will Rocket Lab have before 2027?
KalshiRules
If Rocket Lab’s Neutron rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
- The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Rocket Lab (https://www.youtube.com/@RocketLabCorp), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
- Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome.
- Any name change or rebranding of the Neutron vehicle will have no bearing on the market’s resolution.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31??
- Polymarket prices No at 91% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31? resolve?
- Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: If Rocket Lab’s Neutron rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”.