PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 81.2%-0.5pt
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$8.8K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
17.0% / 20.0%
Spread
3.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Jul 8, 26, 1:18 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
- Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
- The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for China ballistic missile launch by December 31??
- Polymarket prices No at 81% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does China ballistic missile launch by December 31? resolve?
- China ballistic missile launch by December 31? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is China ballistic missile launch by December 31? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.