Will ballistic missile with range over 500km launched from Ukraine hit any target in Russia in 2026?
GeopoliticsOne-OffRussia / Ukraine2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 56.9%
Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 43 minutes ago
Jul 31, 26, 10:44 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, at any point before December 31, 2026, at 23:59 Moscow Time, a ballistic missile launched from Ukraine hits any target within territory currently controlled by Russia, at the distance greater than 500km from territory currently controlled by Ukraine.
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
- Key Definitions and Rules:
- Ballistic Missile: The weapon must be classified as a ballistic missile (such as Fire Point's FP-9, or any Sapsan/Hrim-2 variant confirmed to have a range exceeding 500 km).
- Cruise missiles (e.g., Neptunes, Flamingos), rocket-drones (e.g., Palianytsia), and standard kamikaze drones do not qualify.