What are the current odds for Will nuclear ballistic missile submarines become obsolete by 2100??

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 59.5% as of October 28, 2026.

Will nuclear ballistic missile submarines become obsolete by 2100?

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

Yes 59.5%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 1 hour ago

Lagging

Mar 18, 26, 12:42 AM UTCDec 31, 00, 11:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

Resolution criteria: Resolves YES if either of the following conditions are met by January 1, 2100:

No successor class: At least 4 of 5 nations (US, UK, France, China, Russia) have not laid down the keel of a successor-class SSBN beyond their current next-generation program — Columbia (US), Dreadnought (UK), SNLE 3G (France), Type 096 (China), or post-Borei (Russia).
Fleet drawdown: At least 4 of 5 of those same nations maintain 2 or fewer SSBNs simultaneously, as reported by credible open-source intelligence or official disclosures (e.g., IISS Military Balance, SIPRI, Congressional Research Service equivalents).
Resolves NO otherwise at market close.