Will Ukraine fire an ATACMS missile into Russia before September 1st 2026?
GeopoliticsOne-OffRussia / Ukraine1mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 98.2%
Forecasters
17
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleMay 15, 24, 4:34 PM UTCDec 5, 26, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that Ukraine has fired an ATACMS missile into Russia before September 1st 2026.
- If there is only weak evidence that this has occurred, this question resolves as N/A. If there is no evidence, then this question resolves as NO.
- "Russia" is defined as its 1991 borders.
- Crimea/Donbas are not Russia.
