Will Plesetsk cosmodrome got hit with drone/missile by the end of 2026?
GeopoliticsOne-OffSpaceRussia / Ukraine2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 70.5%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingAug 24, 26, 6:23 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, between August 24, 2026, and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC, the Plesetsk Cosmodrome is confirmed to have been hit by at least one drone, unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), or missile.
- Definition of "Hit": A drone or missile must successfully strike, explode on, or cause physical damage to any structure, launch pad, runway, or ground area within the official perimeter of the Plesetsk Cosmodrome (located in Mirny, Arkhangelsk Oblast, Russia).
- Interceptions & Debris: If an incoming drone or missile is intercepted by air defenses and the falling debris causes no material damage or fires inside the cosmodrome, it does not count as a "hit." If falling debris from an interception causes verified physical damage or a fire to cosmodrome infrastructure, this will qualify as a "hit."
- Verification Sources: Resolution will be based on credible, publicly available evidence.
- This includes official statements from the Russian Ministry of Defense, Ukrainian military officials, or independent analyses from reputable organizations (such as the Institute for the Study of War) alongside verified satellite imagery (e.g., Maxar, Planet Labs).
