Ukraine damages Kremlin with drone or missile before Russia-Ukraine war ends?
GeopoliticsOne-OffRussia / Ukraine21dManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 75.2%
Forecasters
21
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingSep 29, 25, 11:54 PM UTCSep 29, 26, 11:52 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Ukraine capture the city of Donetsk before the Russia-Ukraine war ends
Manifold MarketsWill Volodymyr Zelenskyy stop being president of Ukraine before the Russia-Ukraine war ends.
Manifold MarketsWill Plesetsk cosmodrome got hit with drone/missile by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsNumber of North Korea Missile Tests in September 2026?
PolymarketNATO downs another Russian drone by which date?
PolymarketChina ballistic missile launch by December 31?
PolymarketRules
I'll keep extending the market till there is a peace agreement or a crease fire that's lastet for a full year or the Kremlin is hit by a drone or missile and its resolved YES.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74.8%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21.2%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.8pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25.7M
- 24h Vol
- $487.2K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.6pt48.3%
- October 31-1.0pt29.2%
- September 30-3.0pt11.7%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+3.0pt80%
- September 18+2.5pt75%
- September 11+12.0pt71%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No96%
- Yes4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $111.1K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
POLYMARKETNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- UNRWA+1.9pt9%
- Yulia Navalnaya8%
- International Court of Justice+0.9pt6%
+17 more outcomes
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Ukraine damages Kremlin with drone or missile before Russia-Ukraine war ends??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 75% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Ukraine damages Kremlin with drone or missile before Russia-Ukraine war ends? resolve?
- Ukraine damages Kremlin with drone or missile before Russia-Ukraine war ends? is scheduled to resolve on September 29, 2026.
- How is Ukraine damages Kremlin with drone or missile before Russia-Ukraine war ends? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: I'll keep extending the market till there is a peace agreement or a crease fire that's lastet for a full year or the Kremlin is hit by a drone or missile and its resolved YES.