Will any Nuclear weapons be used by the US till 2027?
PoliticsGeopoliticsOne-OffSpaceRussia / Ukraine2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 94.7%
Forecasters
24
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 37 minutes ago
Mar 1, 26, 9:31 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if any nuclear weapon is detonated by the United States in combat or testing by December 31, 2026.
- This includes strategic warheads, tactical nuclear weapons, or any other nuclear explosive device deployed by U.S. military forces.
- Resolution will be determined by official U.S. government statements, credible news reporting from major international outlets, or public acknowledgment by the Department of Defense.
- The market resolves NO if no nuclear detonation occurs by the end of 2026.
- The United States remains the only country to have used nuclear weapons in combat, with the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in World War II.
