Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 58.8%
Forecasters
21
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleJun 23, 26, 6:24 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if the Crimean (Kerch Strait) Bridge sustains new, documented physical structural damage occurring between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC.
- "Physical structural damage" is defined as visible destruction, collapse, or severe degradation of the road or rail spans, supports, or pylons of the bridge (such as collapsed sections, craters in the roadway, or major structural fires on the rail spans).
- The damage must require physical repairs or result in a complete closure of at least one lane or track for at least 12 consecutive hours.
- To resolve to YES, the damage must be confirmed by at least two independent, reputable international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, The Guardian, Associated Press) or verified by satellite imagery (e.g., Maxar, Planet Labs).
- Precautionary or temporary closures of the bridge due to air raid alerts, smoke screens, or nearby strikes (such as on ferry crossings, oil terminals, or air defenses in nearby Kerch or Krasnodar) that do not cause direct physical damage to the bridge structure itself will not suffice for a YES resolution.