Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 73.3%
Forecasters
19
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleJun 23, 26, 6:24 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if the Crimean (Kerch Strait) Bridge sustains new, documented physical structural damage occurring between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC.
- "Physical structural damage" is defined as visible destruction, collapse, or severe degradation of the road or rail spans, supports, or pylons of the bridge (such as collapsed sections, craters in the roadway, or major structural fires on the rail spans).
- The damage must require physical repairs or result in a complete closure of at least one lane or track for at least 12 consecutive hours.
- To resolve to YES, the damage must be confirmed by at least two independent, reputable international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, The Guardian, Associated Press) or verified by satellite imagery (e.g., Maxar, Planet Labs).
- Precautionary or temporary closures of the bridge due to air raid alerts, smoke screens, or nearby strikes (such as on ferry crossings, oil terminals, or air defenses in nearby Kerch or Krasnodar) that do not cause direct physical damage to the bridge structure itself will not suffice for a YES resolution.
Open markets
Russia / UkrainePOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+1.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)+0.4pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.1pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $26.1M
- 24h Vol
- $380K
POLYMARKETRussia Parliamentary Election Winner
- United Russia (ER)+0.7pt100%
- Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)-0.2pt0%
- A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)0%
+5 more outcomes
POLYMARKETPutin out as President of Russia by which date?
- June 30, 202714%
- December7%
- September 30,1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $23.2M
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETBank of Russia decision in September?
- No Change+2.0pt69.6%
- Decrease27.4%
- Increase-0.1pt2.9%
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETRussia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?
- No+0.1pt99%
- Yes-0.1pt1%
- Total Vol
- $601.1K
- 24h Vol
- $50K
POLYMARKETKanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
- No+3.0pt70%
- Yes-3.0pt30%
- Total Vol
- $402K
- 24h Vol
- $40.6K
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- Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the Crimean bridge be damaged in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 73% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will the Crimean bridge be damaged in 2026? resolve?
- Will the Crimean bridge be damaged in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will the Crimean bridge be damaged in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria