Was Russian nuclear submarine K-186 Omsk seriously damaged or destroyed on or about August 26, 2026?
One-OffSpaceGeopoliticsRussia / Ukraine6dManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 61%
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8
Question type
binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Sep 16, 26, 3:31 PM UTCNov 1, 26, 3:29 AM UTC
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This market concerns Russian nuclear submarine K-186 Omsk and the unexplained explosion reported near Volchanets/Vostok Bay, Primorsky Krai, on August 26, 2026.
- Resolve YES if credible evidence establishes that K-186 Omsk was destroyed, sank, or suffered damage on or about August 26 that rendered it unable to continue normal operational service.
- Resolve NO if credible independent evidence establishes that Omsk remained operational after August 26, including a clearly dated photograph/video, identifiable satellite imagery, independently corroborated port appearance, or other convincing evidence of normal post-incident operations.
- A Russian Ministry of Defence or Pacific Fleet statement by itself will not be sufficient to resolve NO unless independently corroborated.
- If neither outcome can be established by December 31, 2026, resolve N/A.
