What are the current odds for GPS disrupted for 24hr within USA before 2035??

Manifold Markets prices No at 54.8% as of October 25, 2026.

When does GPS disrupted for 24hr within USA before 2035? resolve?

GPS disrupted for 24hr within USA before 2035? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2034.

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The war in Ukraine has seen tactical disruption of satellites by jamming and hacking.

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

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Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 11:45 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4

Current community forecast

No 54.8%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 11 hours ago

Stale

Jul 23, 25, 8:16 PM UTCDec 31, 34, 11:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

The war in Ukraine has seen tactical disruption of satellites by jamming and hacking.

Some researchers are warning that satellite services are growing increasingly vulnerable around the world.
Will civilian satellite navigation be disrupted or unreliable in a large portion of any US state (say, ~100 miles across) for 24 consecutive hours?
YES for multiple credible media reports, or for any state or federal notice to mariners/aviators matching these details.
NO on Jan 1st, 2035
I will not bet in this market, but I may comment on news or my own views.