Will any country that is not currently known to have nuclear weapons detonate a nuclear weapon in 2026? (Tests included)
GeopoliticsOne-OffMiddle EastRussia / UkraineChina3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 94%
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Updated 3 hours ago
StaleJun 29, 25, 8:40 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
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PolymarketRules
Countries currently known to have nuclear weapons are the United States, Russia, United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel.
- This includes wartime use, tests, peaceful use, etc. -- any detonation.
- A nuclear detonation is a nuclear explosion in which the majority of the energy release comes from fission or fusion reactions rather than chemical reactions.
- See also: @/EvanDaniel/will-any-country-that-is-not-curren-ncdy4rg06s
- @/IsaacKing/will-any-nuclear-weapon-be-detonate-602fc87e774f