Will Russia detonate a nuclear device on Ukraine soil by December 31, 2026?
GeopoliticsOne-OffRussia / Ukraine3mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 95.2%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleNov 8, 24, 5:24 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
The delivery method of the device is irrelevant.
- The device itself must detonate causing a nuclear chain reaction and explosion.
- A dirty bomb does not cause a chain reaction and so will resolve to “No.”
- The territory of Ukraine is considered to be all territory claimed prior to the 2014 Russian invasion and seizure of Crimea and Donbas.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Russia detonate a nuclear device on Ukraine soil by December 31, 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 95% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Russia detonate a nuclear device on Ukraine soil by December 31, 2026? resolve?
- Will Russia detonate a nuclear device on Ukraine soil by December 31, 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will Russia detonate a nuclear device on Ukraine soil by December 31, 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The delivery method of the device is irrelevant.