Will Russia detonate a nuclear device on Ukraine soil by December 31, 2026?
GeopoliticsOne-OffRussia / Ukraine2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 97.4%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingNov 8, 24, 5:24 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
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PolymarketRules
The delivery method of the device is irrelevant.
- The device itself must detonate causing a nuclear chain reaction and explosion.
- A dirty bomb does not cause a chain reaction and so will resolve to “No.”
- The territory of Ukraine is considered to be all territory claimed prior to the 2014 Russian invasion and seizure of Crimea and Donbas.