Will the Trump administration detonate a nuclear bomb?
PoliticsGeopoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElectionMiddle East2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 90.7%
Forecasters
40
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleMar 12, 26, 8:05 PM UTCJan 20, 29, 8:49 PM UTC
Trends
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FutuurRules
This market regards the current Trump/Vance administration, including if J.D. Vance takes over from Donald Trump for any reason in the current presidential term ending January 20th, 2029.
- If a nuclear weapon is confirmed detonated by the United States government, this market resolves Yes.
- This includes weapons testing (but not just hypothetical theories about Richter scale readings in Nevada).
- In order for a denied event (test or strike) to count, the evidence would have to be widely acknowledged by mainstream media, ie.
- CNN and WaPo and the BBC all saying that there was a seismic event AND a radioactive event AND major inside sources all saying the same thing.
- This can also resolve Yes if a US proxy uses a nuclear device with the Trump administration's confirmed approval and assistance, such as if the US provides Israel with a nuclear device and with intelligence to deploy it, which is then detonated.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the Trump administration detonate a nuclear bomb??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 91% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the Trump administration detonate a nuclear bomb? resolve?
- Will the Trump administration detonate a nuclear bomb? is scheduled to resolve on January 20, 2029.
- How is Will the Trump administration detonate a nuclear bomb? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market regards the current Trump/Vance administration, including if J.D. Vance takes over from Donald Trump for any reason in the current presidential term ending January 20th, 2029.