FutuurCheck availabilityVerified resolution dataCurrent implied probability
No 94%
No 94%Market quality
32 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$703.4
Low liquidityTraders
3
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Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
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Manifold MarketsWhat will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
PolymarketRules
This event predicts whether South Korea will possess at least one operational nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026.
- The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be authoritative confirmations from the South Korean government, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), or other internationally recognized bodies confirming possession of a nuclear weapon.
- If authoritative sources confirm that South Korea possesses an operational nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- Public statements, political debate, or hypothetical discussions about nuclear armament will not count.
- If confirmation is ambiguous, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on consistent reporting from major international news organizations citing authoritative assessments.