FutuurVerified resolution dataCurrent implied probabilityNo 94%
Market quality
32 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$703.4
Low liquidityTraders
3
Comments
0
Market data
Updated 2 minutes ago
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
will a nuclear bomb be thrown in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran develop a nuclear bomb by the end of 2026?
FutuurWill a nuclear bomb be used against Iran before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the Trump administration detonate a nuclear bomb?
Manifold MarketsWill North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?
PolymarketLee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25.8M
- 24h Vol
- $574.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.1pt48.3%
- October 31-3.0pt28.9%
- September 30-4.0pt12.3%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-4.0pt75%
- September 18-7.0pt69%
- September 11-13.0pt57%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $109.5K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will South Korea have a nuclear bomb by the end of 2026??
- Futuur prices No at 94% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will South Korea have a nuclear bomb by the end of 2026? resolve?
- Will South Korea have a nuclear bomb by the end of 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.