Will the next nuclear bomb end a worldwide conflict, or be the beginning of one?
GeopoliticsOne-Off4yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 57%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleApr 8, 26, 2:01 AM UTCDec 31, 30, 1:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
will a nuclear bomb be thrown in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill a nuclear bomb be used against Iran before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Kazakhstan get a nuclear bomb before end of 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill a nuclear bomb be used in a terrorist attack before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran develop a nuclear bomb by the end of 2026?
FutuurWill South Korea have a nuclear bomb by the end of 2026?
FutuurRules
Excludes nuclear tests by countries, (except a test gone wrong like a nk test ends up in sk type situation)
- Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if a nuclear weapon is detonated in a hostile capacity during a conflict, and this detonation is widely characterized by major international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, AP, BBC, The New York Times) as the catalyst that ends that specific, ongoing, large-scale armed conflict.
- This market resolves NO if a nuclear weapon is detonated in a hostile capacity and is reported by major international news outlets as the precipitating event that initiates or significantly escalates a new, worldwide, or multi-national conflict.
- "Hostile capacity" excludes controlled nuclear tests.
- A "test gone wrong" resulting in damage or loss of life in another sovereign territory that leads to a conflict will count as the beginning of a conflict.
