Will the next nuclear bomb end a worldwide conflict, or be the beginning of one?
GeopoliticsOne-Off4yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 57%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleApr 8, 26, 2:01 AM UTCDec 31, 30, 1:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Excludes nuclear tests by countries, (except a test gone wrong like a nk test ends up in sk type situation)
- Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if a nuclear weapon is detonated in a hostile capacity during a conflict, and this detonation is widely characterized by major international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, AP, BBC, The New York Times) as the catalyst that ends that specific, ongoing, large-scale armed conflict.
- This market resolves NO if a nuclear weapon is detonated in a hostile capacity and is reported by major international news outlets as the precipitating event that initiates or significantly escalates a new, worldwide, or multi-national conflict.
- "Hostile capacity" excludes controlled nuclear tests.
- A "test gone wrong" resulting in damage or loss of life in another sovereign territory that leads to a conflict will count as the beginning of a conflict.
Open markets
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- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 more outcomes
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- 24h Vol
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POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
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- Total Vol
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+2 more outcomes
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- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Total Vol
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POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the next nuclear bomb end a worldwide conflict, or be the beginning of one??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 57% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the next nuclear bomb end a worldwide conflict, or be the beginning of one? resolve?
- Will the next nuclear bomb end a worldwide conflict, or be the beginning of one? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2030.
- How is Will the next nuclear bomb end a worldwide conflict, or be the beginning of one? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Excludes nuclear tests by countries, (except a test gone wrong like a nk test ends up in sk type situation)