Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 8:28 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 80.1%
Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleDec 2, 24, 2:19 AM UTCJan 2, 35, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will there be a terrorist attack deadlier than 9/11 before 2035
Manifold MarketsWill any active city of at least 100,000 people be destroyed by a nuclear bomb before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a confirmed theft of an operational nuclear bomb before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill the next use of a nuclear bomb in combat be due to a mistaken belief that another bomb was used?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran develop a nuclear bomb by the end of 2026?
FutuurWill South Korea have a nuclear bomb by the end of 2026?
FutuurRules
Nuclear terrorism has been a concern since the end of the Cold War, particularly regarding the security of nuclear materials from the former Soviet Union.
- While no terrorist group has successfully detonated a nuclear weapon to date, experts continue to monitor this threat.
- Building or acquiring a nuclear weapon requires highly enriched uranium or plutonium, which are tightly controlled materials.
- Most nuclear power plants use low-enriched uranium, which is not suitable for weapons.
- Resolution Criteria
- This market will resolve YES if a terrorist group or individual successfully detonates a nuclear weapon (fission or fusion bomb) before January 1, 2035.
