Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 80.1%
Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleDec 2, 24, 2:19 AM UTCJan 2, 35, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will another terrorist attack on par with 9/11 be made on the U.S?
Manifold MarketsWill a major terrorist attack with over 100 casualties be committed against the US during Trump's current term?
Manifold MarketsWill Laura Loomer’s terrorist attack prediction be correct?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran develop a nuclear bomb by the end of 2026?
FutuurWill South Korea have a nuclear bomb by the end of 2026?
FutuurWill Russia attack a NATO member in 2026?
FutuurRules
Nuclear terrorism has been a concern since the end of the Cold War, particularly regarding the security of nuclear materials from the former Soviet Union.
- While no terrorist group has successfully detonated a nuclear weapon to date, experts continue to monitor this threat.
- Building or acquiring a nuclear weapon requires highly enriched uranium or plutonium, which are tightly controlled materials.
- Most nuclear power plants use low-enriched uranium, which is not suitable for weapons.
- Resolution Criteria
- This market will resolve YES if a terrorist group or individual successfully detonates a nuclear weapon (fission or fusion bomb) before January 1, 2035.
Open markets
Commodities
KALSHIUS gas prices tomorrow
- Above 4.175099%
- Above 4.160099%
- Above 4.170099%
+26 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $460.1K
- 24h Vol
- $459.9K
KALSHIFlorida gas prices tomorrow
- Above 3.910099%
- Above 3.895099%
- Above 3.900099%
+44 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $230.5K
- 24h Vol
- $230.4K
POLYMARKETWhat will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in September 2026?
- ↑ $90+35.5pt100%
- ↑ $85+5.7pt100%
- ↓ $90100%
+22 more outcomes
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Oct 1, 2027-14.0pt40%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-15.0pt38%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-15.0pt32%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIOhio gas prices tomorrow
- Above 3.900099%
- Above 3.895099%
- Above 3.890099%
+44 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $91.2K
- 24h Vol
- $91.2K
KALSHIUS gas prices this week
- Above 4.1400+25.0pt99%
- Above 4.1200+10.0pt99%
- Above 4.0800+5.0pt99%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Illinois gas prices tomorrow
- Oil Price (WTI) on Sep 9, 2026?
- Diesel prices tomorrow
- Brent crude oil price on September 09, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
- Texas gas prices tomorrow
- Crude Oil all time high by which date?
- Oil Price (WTI) on Sep 11, 2026?
- How high will oil (WTI) get by Dec 31, 2026?
- Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Sep 8, 2026
- How high will peak electricity demand on the Texas ERCOT grid get in 2026?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Pennsylvania gas prices tomorrow
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a nuclear bomb be used in a terrorist attack before 2035??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 80% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a nuclear bomb be used in a terrorist attack before 2035? resolve?
- Will a nuclear bomb be used in a terrorist attack before 2035? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2035.
- How is Will a nuclear bomb be used in a terrorist attack before 2035? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Nuclear terrorism has been a concern since the end of the Cold War, particularly regarding the security of nuclear materials from the former Soviet Union.