Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 91.6%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleApr 7, 26, 3:57 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsWill Iran develop a nuclear bomb by the end of 2026?
FutuurWill South Korea have a nuclear bomb by the end of 2026?
FutuurRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if at least one nuclear weapon is detonated within the internationally recognized borders of Iran at any time before January 1, 2030.
- For the purposes of this market, "nuclear weapon" is defined as any explosive device that derives its destructive force from nuclear reactions (fission, fusion, or a combination thereof).
- The determination will be based on consensus reporting from major international news organizations (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC) and official verification from international bodies such as the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) or the United Nations.
- If there is no confirmation of such an event by the resolution date, the market will resolve to NO.
- As of April 2026, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East involves active conflict between Iran, the United States, and Israel.
