Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 3:36 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastOther 43.1%Leader of 12 outcomes
Forecasters
7
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleOct 17, 22, 12:03 PM UTCOct 31, 26, 2:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
According to South Korean intelligence, North Korea's five-year weapons development plan (unveiled Jan 2021) requires multiple types of nuclear weapons to be tested.
- It has been suggested that North Korea may be planning on a succession of tests of tactical nuclear weapons of different sizes, similar to the test series that were run by Pakistan and India in 1998.
- In 1998, India tested a salvo of three weapons, followed by a salvo of two weapons two days later.
- Similarly, Pakistan tested a salvo of five weapons simultaneously, and followed up with a sixth test of a single warhead two days later.
- (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests_of_Pakistan, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests_of_India)
- Conditional on North Korea testing a nuclear weapon, how many will they test in the initial salvo and in the subsequent 30 days?
