Current community forecast
No 74.9%
Forecasters
19
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 23 minutes ago
Apr 23, 26, 8:16 AM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which cities will Waymo launch in by December 31?
PolymarketChina ballistic missile launch by December 31?
PolymarketRocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31?
PolymarketWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketHow many launches will SpaceX have in October?
KalshiWhich company has the best AI model end of November?
PolymarketRules
Artemis IV is planned to be NASA's first crewed lunar landing since Apollo 17 in 1972, sending four astronauts to lunar orbit aboard an SLS/Orion stack, with two crew descending to the lunar South Pole via a commercial Human Landing System (SpaceX Starship HLS or Blue Origin Blue Moon).
- NASA is officially targeting early 2028 for launch.
- Artemis II (crewed lunar flyby) successfully flew April 1–11, 2026.
- Artemis III (HLS test in Earth orbit) is targeted for mid-2027 and must fly first.
- Both HLS landers (Starship HLS, Blue Moon) still need to complete human-rating certification.
- Resolves YES if the Artemis IV SLS/Orion stack lifts off from the pad (T-0, engine ignition and liftoff) on or before 23:59 UTC on December 31, 2028, regardless of mission success afterward.