Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 90.1%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleApr 17, 23, 7:32 AM UTCDec 31, 29, 4:01 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31?
PolymarketWhen will Rocket Lab’s Neutron make its first flight?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Rocket Lab Neutron launch for the first time?
Manifold MarketsWhat payloads will the first paid Rocket Lab Neutron launch carry?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Rocket Lab Corporation launch Neutron
KalshiWhat will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit Week of September 7 2026?
PolymarketRules
This question is essentially designed to capture 'will Neutron be succesful?
- Any Neutron that takes off (no launch tower) will count as a flight (I am not too concerned that there could be 50 failures!)
- https://www.rocketlabusa.com/launch/neutron/
Open markets
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- OpenAI-1.8pt9%
- Google2%
+18 more outcomes
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- 24h Vol
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LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Total Vol
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- 24h Vol
- $53.1K
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
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- SpaceX-4.0pt38.5%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-16.0pt19%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 2027-0.5pt67%
- June 30, 2027-0.5pt53%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Rocket Lab's Neutron rocket fly 50 times before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 90% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Rocket Lab's Neutron rocket fly 50 times before 2030? resolve?
- Will Rocket Lab's Neutron rocket fly 50 times before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2029.
- How is Will Rocket Lab's Neutron rocket fly 50 times before 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This question is essentially designed to capture 'will Neutron be succesful?