Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 5:08 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 90.1%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleApr 17, 23, 7:32 AM UTCDec 31, 29, 4:01 PM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31?
PolymarketWhen will Rocket Lab’s Neutron make its first flight?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Rocket Lab Neutron launch for the first time?
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Manifold MarketsWill the first Neutron rocket launch be a success ?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Rocket Lab Corporation launch Neutron
KalshiRules
This question is essentially designed to capture 'will Neutron be succesful?
- Any Neutron that takes off (no launch tower) will count as a flight (I am not too concerned that there could be 50 failures!)
- https://www.rocketlabusa.com/launch/neutron/