Current community forecast
No 58.1%
Forecasters
23
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleMar 8, 24, 2:27 PM UTCDec 16, 40, 2:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will there be a successful manned mission to Mars by 2030?
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PolymarketRules
In this NASA article https://www.nasa.gov/humans-in-space/humans-to-mars/, and this interview by Elon Musk talking about SpaceX plans https://www.npr.org/2022/03/17/1087167893/elon-musk-mars-2029 express their dedication to advancing technologies for human missions to Mars.
- NASA underscores its commitment to developing new technologies on its official website, while Elon Musk hints at a manned mission to Mars in 2029 during an interview.
- These statements indicate a shared interest in sending manned missions to the Red Planet.
- Will any of them be successful by the end of 2040 ?
- the mission would be considered successful by the following criteria :
- Safe Arrival: The spacecraft carrying the astronauts safely lands on the surface of Mars without any major incidents or malfunctions.
Open markets
Tech
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.5M
- 24h Vol
- $1.5M
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.7%
- 200-219+8.0pt23.1%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.2%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+7.0pt33.6%
- 90° or above+18.0pt32.7%
- 86° to 87°-13.0pt23.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Houston+69.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Los Angeles+71.0pt75%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $229.5K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 65-89+29.0pt50%
- 40-64+0.5pt46.1%
- 90-114-2.9pt3.9%
+7 more outcomes
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Nasdaq-100 price on Sep 8, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- ETH price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
- Highest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- Next James Bond actor?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will there be any successful manned mission to Mars launched by any country/private company by 2040 ??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 58% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will there be any successful manned mission to Mars launched by any country/private company by 2040 ? resolve?
- Will there be any successful manned mission to Mars launched by any country/private company by 2040 ? is scheduled to resolve on December 16, 2040.
- How is Will there be any successful manned mission to Mars launched by any country/private company by 2040 ? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: In this NASA article https://www.nasa.gov/humans-in-space/humans-to-mars/, and this interview by Elon Musk talking about SpaceX plans https://www.npr.org/2022/03/17/1087167893/elon-musk-mars-2029 express their dedication to advancing technologies for human missions to Mars.