Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2040?
Russia / UkraineOne-OffSpaceChina14yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 67.6%
Forecasters
33
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingDec 23, 23, 7:50 PM UTCJan 1, 41, 10:59 PM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if, by December 31, 2040, evidence of extraterrestrial life is presented, satisfying the following criteria:
- Publication in a Recognized Scientific Journal: The evidence must be featured in at least one peer-reviewed publication in a high-impact scientific journal of notable academic reputation.
- Fields relevant to this evidence include astronomy, astrobiology, or related scientific disciplines.
- Journals such as 'Nature' and 'Science' are exemplary, but other journals of similar stature are also acceptable.
- Confirmation by Space Exploration Authorities: The evidence must be independently confirmed or endorsed by at least two reputable space exploration agencies or governmental bodies.
- These may include NASA (United States), ESA (European Space Agency), Roscosmos (Russia), CNSA (China National Space Administration), or ISRO (Indian Space Research Organisation).
