Current community forecast
No 59%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleDec 18, 25, 3:26 AM UTCDec 31, 35, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will SpaceX deliver the next set of human astronauts to the lunar surface?
Manifold MarketsWill CNSA / China land humans on the moon by the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill China complete a successful manned mission to the lunar surface by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsArtemis III flown with a crewed landing? x Will China land a person on the Moon before the US can return to the Moon?
Manifold MarketsWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiWhat will be the next country to send a manned flight to the moon
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if China lands humans on the Moon before the US returns astronauts to the lunar surface.
- This market resolves NO if the US returns astronauts to the lunar surface before China lands humans on the Moon.
- Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the China Manned Space Agency (CMSA) and NASA confirming successful crewed lunar landings.
- A successful landing requires astronauts to reach the lunar surface and return safely to Earth.
- China has announced a preliminary plan to land two astronauts on the Moon by 2030, with an uncrewed Mengzhou-Lanyue mission planned for 2028 or 2029, ahead of the full crewed mission to the lunar surface in 2030.
