Current community forecast
No 59%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleDec 18, 25, 3:26 AM UTCDec 31, 35, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will CNSA / China land humans on the moon by the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill China complete a successful manned mission to the lunar surface by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich crewed vehicle will be next to land humans on the Moon?
Manifold MarketsWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
PolymarketRussian Luna-27 probe to find resources that can be used as fuel on the lunar soil by the end of 2028?
FutuurRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if China lands humans on the Moon before the US returns astronauts to the lunar surface.
- This market resolves NO if the US returns astronauts to the lunar surface before China lands humans on the Moon.
- Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the China Manned Space Agency (CMSA) and NASA confirming successful crewed lunar landings.
- A successful landing requires astronauts to reach the lunar surface and return safely to Earth.
- China has announced a preliminary plan to land two astronauts on the Moon by 2030, with an uncrewed Mengzhou-Lanyue mission planned for 2028 or 2029, ahead of the full crewed mission to the lunar surface in 2030.
Open markets
ChinaPOLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $116.3K
POLYMARKETXi Jinping out before 2027?
- No+0.2pt96%
- Yes-0.2pt4%
- Total Vol
- $13.1M
- 24h Vol
- $45K
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Beijing on September 9?
- 26°C+11.5pt52.4%
- 27°C+1.0pt22.9%
- 25°C-3.0pt16.2%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?
- No72.3%
- Yes27.7%
- Total Vol
- $414.1K
- 24h Vol
- $15.6K
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
- No+1.0pt89.1%
- Yes-1.0pt10.9%
- Total Vol
- $3.1M
- 24h Vol
- $12.8K
POLYMARKETWill Xi Jinping visit US by which date?
- October 31+1.4pt98%
- December 31+1.7pt97%
- September 30+0.5pt95%
+3 more outcomes
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
- Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
- How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
- Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
- Kinmen County Magistrate Election Winner
- Will Xi Jinping visit the United States?
- Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?
- Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will China land humans on the Moon before the US returns astronauts to the lunar surface??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 59% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will China land humans on the Moon before the US returns astronauts to the lunar surface? resolve?
- Will China land humans on the Moon before the US returns astronauts to the lunar surface? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2035.
- How is Will China land humans on the Moon before the US returns astronauts to the lunar surface? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria