Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 7:38 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
SpaceX 6.1%Leader of 6 outcomes
SpaceX 6.1%Forecasters
27
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleJan 7, 24, 9:06 PM UTCJan 1, 31, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which crewed vehicle will be next to land humans on the Moon?
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PolymarketWill SpaceX's first Starship Cargo mission successfully land on the moon?
Manifold MarketsStarship launches humans to Mars before 2030?
KalshiWill Elon be able to send humans to Mars before 2050
Manifold MarketsRules
The question will resolve as "YES" for each space agency or private company that successfully lands humans on Mars before the end of 2030.
- If multiple agencies or companies achieve this independently or through a collaboration, each will be resolved as "YES" individually.
- The successful landing is defined by a human crew safely reaching the surface of Mars and conducting at least one extravehicular activity (EVA) or surface operation.
- The resolution will be based on official announcements and confirmations from the respective agencies or credible space exploration authorities.