What are the current odds for Will SpaceX's first Starship Cargo mission successfully land on the moon??

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 80.7% as of October 27, 2026.

Will SpaceX's first Starship Cargo mission successfully land on the moon?

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

Yes 80.7%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 6 minutes ago

Sep 11, 23, 10:35 PM UTCJan 2, 31, 4:59 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

For a successful mission Starship needs to soft-land on the moon, and the payloads on the lander need to be operational.

Derivatives of Starship will count as Starship for this market, what counts as a "derivative" of Starship is up to my judgement.
HLS is a derivative of Starship, but only missions which deliver cargo to the surface of the moon count for this market.
This will tentatively stay open until a cargo mission is attempted or it becomes clear that none will actualize; the close date isn't particularly relevant other than as a measure of expected timelines