What are the current odds for Will Elon be able to send humans to Mars before 2050?

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 54% as of September 8, 2026.

Will Elon be able to send humans to Mars before 2050

One-OffSpace Science

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

Yes 54%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 20 hours ago

Stale

Dec 17, 23, 11:41 AM UTCJul 1, 50, 7:41 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

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Rules

Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.

Report a data issue with this market

Will Elon be able to send humans to Mars before 2050

One-OffSpace Science

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

Yes 54%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 20 hours ago

Stale

Dec 17, 23, 11:41 AM UTCJul 1, 50, 7:41 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Related Markets

Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?

Kalshi

Starship launches humans to Mars before 2030?

Kalshi

Which space agencies or private companies will successfully land humans on Mars by 2030?🚀

Manifold Markets

Will SpaceX send a Starship to Mars before 2028?

Manifold Markets

Will Rocket Lab successfully send an atmospheric probe to Venus by the end of 2026?

Manifold Markets

Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?

Kalshi

Rules

Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.

Report a data issue with this market

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will Elon be able to send humans to Mars before 2050?: Manifold Markets prices Yes at 54% as of September 8, 2026.
When does Will Elon be able to send humans to Mars before 2050 resolve?: Will Elon be able to send humans to Mars before 2050 is scheduled to resolve on July 1, 2050.

Will Elon be able to send humans to Mars before 2050

Will Elon be able to send humans to Mars before 2050

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