Data quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 3:53 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
>= 35 80.2%Leader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
9
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleJun 30, 26, 2:24 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Elon Musk lands on the moon anytime through 2029
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Manifold MarketsNASA lands on the moon?
KalshiWho lands on the Moon next?
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PolymarketRules
By date of launches and landing, not the flight number that does the landing, so inclusive of refueling flights.
- Update 2026-08-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Launch counting starts from IFT-1 (integrated flight tests, excluding ship-only hops).
- The landing on the Moon does not need to be crewed; an uncrewed demo or cargo landing will qualify.