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Will humans set foot on the Moon again before an unmanned SpaceX Starship lands on Mars?

TechOne-OffSpace2y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

Yes 76.4%

Forecasters

15

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 2 hours ago

Stale

Jul 15, 24, 6:05 PM UTCJan 1, 29, 4:59 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.

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Rules

Inspired by @DanHomerick

Open until one happens
Here's a market idea if you want to use it.
I searched for an existing market for the topic, but didn't find one.
It's a question that the YouTuber Marcus House asked as an outro in this video:
https://youtu.be/zeDwH44xTIU?si=Jmgi6tPQmcFy3VkB

Open markets

BTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

$76,750 or above99%
$76,500 or above99%
$76,250 or above99%

+77 more outcomes

Total Vol: $1.5M
24h Vol: $1.5M

BTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

$72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
$72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
$69,500 or above+1.0pt98%

+47 more outcomes

Total Vol

Elon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?

180-199+10.0pt31.7%
200-219+8.0pt23.1%
160-179-4.0pt19.2%

+23 more outcomes

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?

88° to 89°+7.0pt33.6%
90° or above+18.0pt32.7%
86° to 87°-13.0pt23.1%

+3 more outcomes

Total Vol

Where will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?

Houston+69.0pt99%
Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
Los Angeles+71.0pt75%

+19 more outcomes

Total Vol: $229.5K

Elon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?

65-89+29.0pt50%
40-64+0.5pt46.1%
90-114-2.9pt3.9%

+7 more outcomes

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will humans set foot on the Moon again before an unmanned SpaceX Starship lands on Mars??: Manifold Markets prices Yes at 76% as of September 8, 2026.
When does Will humans set foot on the Moon again before an unmanned SpaceX Starship lands on Mars? resolve?: Will humans set foot on the Moon again before an unmanned SpaceX Starship lands on Mars? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2029.
How is Will humans set foot on the Moon again before an unmanned SpaceX Starship lands on Mars? settled?: Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Inspired by @DanHomerick

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