Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Other 20.3%Leader of 17 outcomes
Forecasters
16
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleAug 4, 23, 12:33 AM UTCJan 1, 28, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the next person to set foot on the moon be a woman?
Manifold MarketsWill humans set foot on the Moon again before an unmanned SpaceX Starship lands on Mars?
Manifold MarketsWhich of the following countries will the next astronaut to set foot on the moon represent?
Manifold MarketsNASA's mission Artemis 3 to land the first woman and the next man on the Moon by the end of 2026?
FutuurWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
KalshiRules
Resolves to the full name of the first woman to step onto the lunar surface.
- If multiple women do this simultaneously, it resolves to all of them equally.
Open markets
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-1.8pt9%
- Google2%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $121.9K
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Total Vol
- $53.1K
- 24h Vol
- $53.1K
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt59.4%
- SpaceX-4.0pt38.5%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-16.0pt19%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 2027-0.5pt67%
- June 30, 2027-0.5pt53%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Who will be the first woman to set foot on the Moon??
- Manifold Markets prices Other at 20% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Who will be the first woman to set foot on the Moon? resolve?
- Who will be the first woman to set foot on the Moon? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2028.
- How is Who will be the first woman to set foot on the Moon? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves to the full name of the first woman to step onto the lunar surface.