Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 8:15 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 56%
Forecasters
37
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleJul 14, 23, 11:38 PM UTCJan 1, 00, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Who will be the first woman to set foot on the Moon?
Manifold MarketsWill humans set foot on the Moon again before an unmanned SpaceX Starship lands on Mars?
Manifold MarketsWhich of the following countries will the next astronaut to set foot on the moon represent?
Manifold MarketsWhen will humans set foot on the moon again?
Manifold MarketsWill there be an orgy on the moon by the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill UNICEF's 2026 Afghanistan appeal finish at least 50% funded?
Manifold MarketsRules
If both women and non-women take the next step at the same time, resolves to the fraction of women among them.
- If for some reason it is not clear whether a woman was first, resolves to the fraction of women among the crew of the mission.
- Update 2025-02-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Updated Resolution Criteria:
- Only count individuals who actually set foot on the lunar surface.
- Crew members who remain inside a landed vehicle and do not exit are not counted.
