Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 53.8%
Forecasters
36
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleJul 14, 23, 11:38 PM UTCJan 1, 00, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Who will be the first woman to set foot on the Moon?
Manifold MarketsWhich of the following countries will the next astronaut to set foot on the moon represent?
Manifold MarketsWhen will humans set foot on the moon again?
Manifold MarketsNASA's mission Artemis 3 to land the first woman and the next man on the Moon by the end of 2026?
FutuurElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
PolymarketWill Florida receive more visitors in 2026 than in 2025?
KalshiRules
If both women and non-women take the next step at the same time, resolves to the fraction of women among them.
- If for some reason it is not clear whether a woman was first, resolves to the fraction of women among the crew of the mission.
- Update 2025-02-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Updated Resolution Criteria:
- Only count individuals who actually set foot on the lunar surface.
- Crew members who remain inside a landed vehicle and do not exit are not counted.
Open markets
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-1.8pt9%
- Google2%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $121.9K
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Total Vol
- $53.1K
- 24h Vol
- $53.1K
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt59.4%
- SpaceX-4.0pt38.5%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-16.0pt19%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 2027-0.5pt67%
- June 30, 2027-0.5pt53%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the next person to set foot on the moon be a woman??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 54% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the next person to set foot on the moon be a woman? resolve?
- Will the next person to set foot on the moon be a woman? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2100.
- How is Will the next person to set foot on the moon be a woman? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: If both women and non-women take the next step at the same time, resolves to the fraction of women among them.