Data quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 6:50 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
Yes 57%
Forecasters
23
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleDec 1, 24, 3:54 AM UTCDec 31, 28, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a humanoid robot set foot on Mars before a biological human does?
Manifold MarketsWill humans set foot on the Moon again before an unmanned SpaceX Starship lands on Mars?
Manifold MarketsWill a legged robot mission set foot on Mars before a biological human does?
Manifold MarketsIf human brain emulations are created, will they outnumber the biological human population within a decade?
Manifold MarketsWill a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does?
KalshiWill there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2031?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market resolves YES if a humanoid robot physically makes contact with the lunar surface before the next human does, and NO otherwise.
- Resolution will be based on official announcements from space agencies (NASA, CNSA, etc.) and verified mission data.
- Key context:
- China's Chang'e-8 mission plans to send a humanoid robot to the Moon's south pole in 2028
- NASA's Artemis 3, the first crewed Moon landing since Apollo 17, is targeted for September 2026
