Current community forecast
Yes 57%
Forecasters
23
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleDec 1, 24, 3:54 AM UTCDec 31, 28, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a humanoid robot set foot on Mars before a biological human does?
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KalshiRules
This market resolves YES if a humanoid robot physically makes contact with the lunar surface before the next human does, and NO otherwise.
- Resolution will be based on official announcements from space agencies (NASA, CNSA, etc.) and verified mission data.
- Key context:
- China's Chang'e-8 mission plans to send a humanoid robot to the Moon's south pole in 2028
- NASA's Artemis 3, the first crewed Moon landing since Apollo 17, is targeted for September 2026
Open markets
ChinaPOLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $110.1K
POLYMARKETXi Jinping out before 2027?
- No+0.2pt96%
- Yes-0.2pt4%
- Total Vol
- $13.1M
- 24h Vol
- $41.2K
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Beijing on September 9?
- 26°C-0.5pt50%
- 27°C+8.5pt27.4%
- 25°C-7.0pt15.7%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?
- No-0.5pt72.3%
- Yes+0.5pt27.7%
- Total Vol
- $414.1K
- 24h Vol
- $15.5K
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
- No+1.0pt89.1%
- Yes-1.0pt10.9%
- Total Vol
- $3.1M
- 24h Vol
- $13.8K
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Alibaba+4.5pt71.3%
- Moonshot-3.2pt26.7%
- Z.ai-0.8pt1%
+8 more outcomes
- Will Xi Jinping visit US by which date?
- Top Chinese AI Company week of September 14th
- Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
- How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
- Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
- Will Xi Jinping visit the United States?
- Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Beijing on September 10?
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a humanoid robot set foot on the Moon before the next biological human?
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 57% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a humanoid robot set foot on the Moon before the next biological human resolve?
- Will a humanoid robot set foot on the Moon before the next biological human is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2028.
- How is Will a humanoid robot set foot on the Moon before the next biological human settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves YES if a humanoid robot physically makes contact with the lunar surface before the next human does, and NO otherwise.