Data quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 9:13 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
Yes 75%
Forecasters
59
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleDec 1, 24, 4:01 AM UTCDec 31, 28, 10:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a humanoid robot set foot on the Moon before the next biological human
Manifold MarketsWill a legged robot mission set foot on Mars before a biological human does?
Manifold MarketsIf human brain emulations are created, will they outnumber the biological human population within a decade?
Manifold MarketsWhen will a human first set foot on Mars?
Manifold MarketsWill a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does?
KalshiWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
PolymarketRules
it has to take a step for it to count
- Update 2025-13-01 (PST): - If both humanoid robots and biological humans are part of the same mission, the market will resolve as 'yes' if the robots take a step before the humans.
- (AI summary of creator comment)
- Update 2025-16-01 (PST): - Humanoid robots with wheels for feet will count as setting foot if they take a step with their wheels or roll on them.
- Update 2025-06-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The market close date will be extended as necessary if the events determining the outcome (a humanoid robot or a biological human setting foot on Mars) have not occurred by the current close date.