Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastUS 53.3%Leader of 9 outcomes
Forecasters
205
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-0.6 pts
Market data
Updated 18 hours ago
StaleAug 19, 25, 5:17 PM UTCJan 1, 35, 6:17 PM UTC
Trends
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
NASA lands on the moon?
KalshiHow many Starships will launch before a Starship lands on the Moon?
Manifold MarketsHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
KalshiBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
PolymarketElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
PolymarketRules
If the next person to successfully land on the moon is a Chinese citizen, resolves "China"
- If the next person to successfully land on the moon is a US citizen, resolves "US"
- If multiple people successfully land on the moon at the same time and they have different citizenship, resolves proportionally to those citizenships:
- 1) 1 US citizen and 1 Chinese citizen would resolve the market 50% China, 50% US, 0% everything else.
- 2) 1 dual-citizen of US and Canada, and 2 US citizens, would resolve the market 5/6 US, 1/6 Canada, and 0% for everything else)
- This market will be extended until it can be resolved.
Open markets
TechKALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above+68.0pt95.2%
- 88° to 89°-23.0pt1%
- 84° to 85°-9.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $682.4K
- 24h Vol
- $661.4K
KALSHIGuyana Amazon Warriors vs Antigua And Barbuda Falcons
- Guyana Amazon Warriors-3.0pt60.4%
- Antigua And Barbuda Falcons+3.0pt39.6%
- Total Vol
- $654.7K
- 24h Vol
- $626.1K
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- New Orleans+43.0pt99%
- Houston+70.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+17.0pt99%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $504.6K
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+53.0pt95.2%
- 79° or below-2.0pt1%
- 82° to 83°-45.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $69,000 or above99%
- $69,500 or above98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3M
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+7.0pt34.3%
- 160-179+2.0pt23.8%
- 200-219-1.0pt19.1%
+23 more outcomes
- Elon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- BTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Highest temperature in Austin on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
- Highest temperature in Chicago on Sep 8, 2026?
- Next James Bond actor?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Who lands on the Moon next??
- Manifold Markets prices US at 53% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Who lands on the Moon next? resolve?
- Who lands on the Moon next? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2035.
- How is Who lands on the Moon next? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: If the next person to successfully land on the moon is a Chinese citizen, resolves "China"