Data quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 24, 2026, 5:21 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
US 49.5%Leader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters
206
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleAug 19, 25, 5:17 PM UTCJan 1, 35, 6:17 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
NASA lands on the moon?
KalshiHow many Starships will launch before a Starship lands on the Moon?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk lands on the moon anytime through 2029
Manifold MarketsWhat will be the next country to send a manned flight to the moon
Manifold MarketsWill China land humans on the Moon before the US returns astronauts to the lunar surface?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia announce completion of an AI data center with >10,000 AI accelerators (GPUs/TPUs) before 2027?
Manifold MarketsRules
If the next person to successfully land on the moon is a Chinese citizen, resolves "China"
- If the next person to successfully land on the moon is a US citizen, resolves "US"
- If multiple people successfully land on the moon at the same time and they have different citizenship, resolves proportionally to those citizenships:
- 1) 1 US citizen and 1 Chinese citizen would resolve the market 50% China, 50% US, 0% everything else.
- 2) 1 dual-citizen of US and Canada, and 2 US citizens, would resolve the market 5/6 US, 1/6 Canada, and 0% for everything else)
- This market will be extended until it can be resolved.
