Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 10:36 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
No · —
Loading selected book…
—
Stored reference
No 86.1%
No 86.1%Market quality
46 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$11
Liquidity
$505.2
Low liquidityOpen interest
$24.2K
Bid / Ask
— / —
NoSpread
—
Comments
17
7d Change
+6.0 pts
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingDec 31, 25, 7:10 PM UTCMar 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Top holders
Loading top holders
Market depth · No
Loading selected book…
—
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will there be another record setting deadliest natural disaster in the United States before the end of 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill there be another record setting deadliest natural disaster in the United States before the end of 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill a terrestrial natural disaster not caused by anthropogenic climate change wipe out humanity by 2100?
Manifold MarketsWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
PolymarketWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- - A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US - A major meteor strikes (10kt+) - A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6) - An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
- The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf