Current implied probability
No 87%-1.0pt
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$27.1
Liquidity
$1.9K
Low liquidityBid / Ask
12.0% / 14.0%
Spread
2.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
17
7d Change
-8.5 pts
Market data
Updated 17 minutes ago
Dec 31, 25, 7:10 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will there be another record setting deadliest natural disaster in the United States before the end of 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
PolymarketWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
Kalshi(M5000 subsidy) Will the Arctic sea ice fully melt before the year 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill a human walk on the Moon again before 2027?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- - A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US - A major meteor strikes (10kt+) - A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6) - An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
- The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Open markets
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+0.5pt89.9%
- OpenAI-1.6pt8.1%
- Google-0.1pt2%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $152.8K
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No51.5%
- Yes48.5%
- Total Vol
- $120.5K
- 24h Vol
- $32.5K
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
- Anthropic-1.5pt72.5%
- OpenAI+2.2pt18.6%
- Google-1.4pt5.9%
+18 more outcomes
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-11.0pt79%
- Above 9-50.0pt24%
- Above 10-20.0pt14%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETTesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- December 31,47%
- June 30,41%
- February 28,27%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.2M
POLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 202764.8%
- 202622.2%
- September 30, 202613%
- Total Vol
- $13.6K
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- SpaceX Starship 14th launch?
- Pro Football Championship Halftime Show: Performers
- Two SpaceX Starships dock together by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Natural Disaster in 2026??
- Polymarket prices No at 87% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Natural Disaster in 2026? resolve?
- Natural Disaster in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Natural Disaster in 2026? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET: