Current implied probability
Yes 25%+0.0%
Market quality
44 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$43.1
Liquidity
$1.8K
Low liquidityBid / Ask
24.0% / 25.0%
Spread
4.2%
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Dec 31, 25, 7:17 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Selected outcome
Yes25%
Related Markets
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
$4.3K2: 63%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Highest monthly CO2 level at Mauna Loa in first half of 2026
$980432 or less: 0.4%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
When will El Niño conditions be declared present?
$1.4Before Jul 1, 2026: 70%
KALSHI
KALSHI
How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030?
$0.3At least 440: 89%KALSHI
KALSHI
Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050?
$0.1Yes: 77%KALSHI
KALSHI
Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?
$0Yes: 8%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETActive in these topics
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- - A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US - A major meteor strikes (10kt+) - A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6) - An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
- The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf