Will there be another record setting deadliest natural disaster in the United States before the end of 2029?
WeatherOne-Off3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 83.3%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleJul 8, 25, 7:38 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
The current deadliest natural disaster for the USA was the 1900 Galveston hurricane which killed 6000-8000 people
- Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1900_Galveston_hurricane
Open markets
WeatherKALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 10, 2026?
- New York City+68.0pt99%
- Boston+46.0pt99%
- Oklahoma City+11.0pt99%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $297.1K
- 24h Vol
- $283.9K
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 10, 2026?
- 91° or above+29.0pt93.3%
- 89° to 90°-21.0pt2.9%
- 87° to 88°-9.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIHighest temperature in Miami on Sep 10, 2026?
- 90° to 91°+52.0pt95.2%
- 88° to 89°-31.0pt1%
- 92° to 93°-17.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 10, 2026?
- 85° to 86°+19.0pt58.1%
- 84° or below26.7%
- 87° to 88°-15.0pt12.4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $76.5K
KALSHIWhat will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic this year?
- Fay+2.0pt37%
- Gonzalo+2.0pt27%
- Hanna+4.0pt16%
+18 more outcomes
KALSHIHighest temperature in Oklahoma City on Sep 10, 2026?
- 85° to 86°+11.0pt40%
- 83° to 84°-1.0pt18%
- 87° to 88°-9.0pt15%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Highest temperature in Chicago on Sep 10, 2026?
- Highest temperature in San Francisco on Sep 10, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Austin on Sep 10, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Seattle on Sep 10, 2026?
- Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 11?
- Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on September 11?
- Highest temperature in Beijing on September 11?
- Highest temperature in Houston on Sep 10, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Dallas on Sep 10, 2026?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will there be another record setting deadliest natural disaster in the United States before the end of 2029??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 83% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Will there be another record setting deadliest natural disaster in the United States before the end of 2029? resolve?
- Will there be another record setting deadliest natural disaster in the United States before the end of 2029? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2029.
- How is Will there be another record setting deadliest natural disaster in the United States before the end of 2029? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The current deadliest natural disaster for the USA was the 1900 Galveston hurricane which killed 6000-8000 people