PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedAwaiting verified resolution: 5.7 to 5.8
CoinRithm is waiting for provider-confirmed settlement before treating this market as resolved.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 28, 2026, 7:42 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current implied probability
5.7 to 5.8 97.1%+11.0ptLeader of 6 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
5.7 to 5.8 97.1%+11.0ptMarket quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$1K
Liquidity
$11.5K
Medium liquidityOpen interest
$2.4K
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleOct 25, 26, 4:07 AM UTCOct 28, 26, 6:00 PM UTC
Probability Timeline
5.7 to 5.8100%
6.1 or more3%
5.3 to 5.40%
5.5 to 5.60%
5.9 to 6.00%
Under 5.30%
5.7 to 5.897.1%
6.1 or more2.9%
5.3 to 5.40%
5.5 to 5.60%
5.9 to 6.00%
Under 5.30%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
What will the biggest earthquake be on October 28, 2026?
PolymarketWhat will the biggest earthquake be on October 29, 2026?
PolymarketWhat will the biggest earthquake be on October 30, 2026?
PolymarketWill Tokyo experience a major earthquake before the end of October 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRules
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the magnitude of the largest earthquake recorded globally on October 27, 2026, as reported by the USGS Earthquake Catalog.
- Brackets: the named outcome / the named outcome / the named outcome / the named outcome / the named outcome / the named outcome.
- Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
- The observation period is the UTC calendar day: 00:00 UTC to 23:59 UTC on October 27, 2026.
- An earthquake is assigned to the day containing its origin time.
- Magnitude refers to the USGS preferred magnitude value, listed under 'Magnitude' in the format column.