Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 96.8%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Oct 13, 26, 4:48 AM UTCOct 31, 26, 2:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
This market will be resolved as YES only if an earthquake strong enough to be covered as major news outside Japan occurs between October 13 and October 31, 2026, Japan time.
- This applies to the 23 wards of the former Tokyo city and not the minor cities, towns, and outlying islands governed by the Tokyo Metropolitan prefecture.
- Judgment will be based on a mention in news coverage of an earthquake taking place in "central Tokyo" or mentioning as taking place specifically in one or more of the 23 wards, in an article posted to CNN's international edition website (edition.cnn.com).