FutuurCheck availabilityVerified resolution dataCurrent implied probabilityNo 93%
Market quality
31 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$270.6
Low liquidityTraders
7
Comments
0
Market data
Updated 2 minutes ago
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a major earthquake (above 8.0 magnitude) strike a populated area in the Pacific Ring of Fire within five years?
Manifold MarketsWill San Francisco experience a major earthquake before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
KalshiRules
Historical records of earthquakes on the West Coast of the US, particularly in California, go back to the 18th century, while the Spanish were occupying the region.
- The latest big earthquake was registered in July 2019, reaching a magnitude of 7 on the Richter scale.
- For quite some time now, scientists have predicted the occurrence of the "Big One", a major earthquake that would have its epicenter roughly 160 km from the US west coast, reaching magnitude 9 or above, and would hit hard from California to Vancouver, with both ground movement and tsunamis.
- The zone is thought to generate a huge quake every 200 to 530 years, and the last one was registered in 1700.
- Specialists say it is now just a matter of time until this catastrophic event happens.
- Will the "Big One" happens before the end of 2026? If by December 31st, 2026, an earthquake whose epicenter is located in the vicinity of Juan de Fuca plate has a magnitude of at least 9 in its epicenter and is felt in any part of the West Coast of the United States, this market will resolve to "Yes".