Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 88.2%
Forecasters
40
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 19 hours ago
StaleJun 6, 24, 12:06 AM UTCJan 1, 31, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will California experience an earthquake of magnitude 7.5 or greater before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a major earthquake (above 8.0 magnitude) strike a populated area in the Pacific Ring of Fire within five years?
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FutuurWe discover that the US had an earthquake-producing weapon by EOY 2030
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PolymarketWill there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
KalshiRules
Major earthquake would involve property damage of over $1B or loss of life over 100.
- Epicenter has to be within 50 miles of San Francisco.
- Loma Prieta quake would not have qualified due to distance.
Open markets
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+1.2pt86%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029-41.6pt48%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $265.8K
- 24h Vol
- $109.9K
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 2028+1.0pt13%
- Before 2027+0.2pt5%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $33.3M
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30-0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
- Before 2030-19.0pt44%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $126.9K
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+0.6pt4%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $9.3K
KALSHIHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Above 0+3.0pt48%
- Above 1-2.0pt18%
- Above 2-6.0pt8%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
- Will Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will San Francisco experience a major earthquake before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 88% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will San Francisco experience a major earthquake before 2030? resolve?
- Will San Francisco experience a major earthquake before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2031.
- How is Will San Francisco experience a major earthquake before 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Major earthquake would involve property damage of over $1B or loss of life over 100.