Current implied probability
No 94%
No 94%Market quality
64 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$26.6
Liquidity
$6.3K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
6.0% / 6.7%
Spread
0.7 pt
Tight spreadComments
10
7d Change
-0.1 pts
Market data
Updated 37 minutes ago
Dec 29, 25, 11:25 PM UTCApr 1, 27, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 0.1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Major volcano eruption in 2026?
KalshiVesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?
PolymarketEtna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026?
PolymarketHow many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
PolymarketWill any Manifold user be killed in a volcanic eruption before 2050?
Manifold MarketsMount Spurr significant eruption by date?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET.
- Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
- If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
- Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.