Current implied probability
No 83%
No 83%Market quality
32 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$9.5
Liquidity
$13.9
Low liquidityBid / Ask
1.2% / 19.0%
Spread
17.8 pt
Wide spreadComments
4
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Apr 21, 26, 7:35 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 0.1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
PolymarketEtna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026?
PolymarketWill Mount Vesuvius erupt before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least 85% of one 1000-word passage by 2030?
Manifold MarketsMajor volcano eruption in 2026?
KalshiWill any Manifold user be killed in a volcanic eruption before 2050?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
- This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred.
- If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
- If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.