PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
No · —
Loading selected book…
—
Stored reference
No 96%
No 96%Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$1.5K
Low liquidityOpen interest
$4.5K
Bid / Ask
— / —
NoSpread
—
Comments
0
7d Change
-0.7 pts
Market data
Updated 33 minutes ago
Apr 3, 26, 10:44 PM UTCJan 8, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 0.1 percentage points
- Fees:
- No
Top holders
Loading top holders
Market depth · No
Loading selected book…
—
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
KalshiWhere will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur by end of October?
PolymarketWhat will be the highest magnitude of an earthquake near the Phlegraean Fields in italy (Campi Flegrei) in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhere will the largest magnitude Earthquake be in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a 6.7 or greater magnitude earthquake in San Francisco in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
- For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
- If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source.
- If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.