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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Science
  3. Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?
Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?

Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?

4.5% (24h)One-OffScience6mo
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 5%-0.0%
Market quality

24 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$0

Liquidity

$1.3K

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

4.0% / 6.0%

Spread

50.0%

Wide spread
7d Change

-4.5%

Market data

Updated 1 minute ago

Apr 3, 26, 10:47 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes5%

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
  • For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
  • If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source.
  • If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

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Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
  • For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
  • If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source.
  • If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.