Will California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026?
0.3 pts (24h)WeatherQuarterly2mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
No · —
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Stored reference
No 95%
No 95%Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$1K
Low liquidityOpen interest
$1.6K
Bid / Ask
— / —
NoSpread
—
Comments
2
7d Change
-0.8 pts
Market data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Jul 24, 26, 6:34 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 4:59 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 0.1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
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Market depth · No
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
- The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries.
- Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
- Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
- Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET.